Network Vulnerability in Gaza
KOW links to a fascinating post about Israeli strategy in Gaza. I haven’t had time to wade through the original post yet, but just reading the KOW post I’m struck by the jump from inanimate complicated networks to dynamic human-based networks.
In general, the underlying idea is: each system has its own critical point. If I know where it is, I hit this point and destroy the whole system. If I do not know this, I will have to go on hitting different components of the system until I accidentally hit the critical point. The more components I damage, even without hitting the critical point, the closer is the moment when the system disintegrates.
And there is a certain connection between “q” - which is the percentage of component interconnection - and “Q” which describes the probability of the whole system collapse.
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| Fig. 4. The Probability of System Collapse |
So what does this formula tell us? In case the damage level of the components (q) within the system is 50%, the system will definitely stop functioning. There are simply no systems capable to withstand the malfunctioning of half of its components. In case q is 25%, there is still an 80% probability of its falling apart.
I’ll buy that one could make this sort of assessment of an electrical network or a water distribution system or an oil pipeline network. But a dynamic network of organizational authorities, human relationships and commands? I think we’d have to generalize away all the interesting content to make such a comparison.
Also, there are obviously assumptions about the underlying the network topology behind the above calculations. I’d be fascinated to learn what they are. Maybe when I read the whole thing I’ll find out.
I think the original presentation was made long before the current actions in Gaza.
Comment by TGGP — February 4, 2009 @ 11:52 pm
so the news that Hamas is ‘ stealing ‘ UN aid , is
genuine or another Israeli hit ?
Comment by annie — February 6, 2009 @ 6:05 pm