Some interesting oil price stats
Relative to per capita income, the bank said oil prices would have to fall to about $45 a barrel to return crude to it’s historical average.
In the early 1970s, the average American family could buy about 1,000 barrels of oil on a year’s salary. That 1,000 barrels was the norm for most of the last few decades, with the exception of the early 1980s and 2008, when that number dropped to around 300 barrels of oil. Today, oil would have to cost around $45 a barrel for the average family to afford 1000 barrels.
The bank also calculated how high oil prices have to be for OPEC countries to maintain their budgets. Iran and Venezuela, who are often the first to call for production cuts, need the highest price per barrel - $95.
Russia needs about $70, while Saudi Arabia, OPEC’s largest producer and de facto ruler, needs about $55 a barrel.
Other measures pointed to a higher price for oil. The bank estimates crude needs to cost $80 a barrel to keep new production coming online, and as a percent of a U.S. consumer’s disposable income, current prices are about average.
But taking all these measures together, the bank says $60 a barrel seems like a probable place for oil prices to bottom out.
