“…how rarely success is gained by wishing and how often by forecast…”
Thucydides, The Peloponnesian War, 6.13.1

As true now as it was then. Wishing is not a strategy.

I’ve discussed the importance of tracking what little open source data there is on the number of Chinese protests before. Last week, I found another data point:

“Liaowang, a magazine published by China’s government new agency Xinhua, reported this week that more than 90,000 ‘mass incidents’ took place in 2006, up from 87,000 the previous year.” [1]

[1] “Post-Olympic Stress Disorder,” The Economist, September 13, 2008, p52.

Robb points to some Google patents for off-shore floating data centers. Commenters talk about Gibson references, but nobody’s pointed out the Stephenson connection yet.

Sure, the data haven of Cryptonomicon wasn’t a barge, but many of the issues being discussed (degree of government control, vulnerability to disruption) are explored in the book.

All of this material could make for a great wargame/crisis simulation scenario with global guerrilla teams along with nation state teams and multi-national corporation teams.

This should already be on folks radar, but this is a good reminder:

The International Energy Agency, an adviser to 27 nations, cut its forecast for global oil demand in 2008 and 2009 as high prices and the economic slowdown reduce U.S. consumption.

…The International Energy Agency lowered its 2008 forecast by 100,000 barrels to 86.8 million barrels a day, and the 2009 estimate by 140,000 barrels to 87.6 million barrels a day, the Paris-based agency said today in its monthly report.

“A combination of weak economic prospects and persistently high prices appears to be having an impact on consumer behavior and choices,'’ David Fyfe, the head of the IEA’s oil industry and markets division, said in a telephone interview today.

OPEC’s decision to curb supply may be “counterproductive,'’ Fyfe said. “High oil prices are still hurting.'’

Closer to home, EIA downgraded its forecast for American oil consumption and imports. The forecast now has petroleum net imports falling by more than 1 million bpd between 2007 and 2009.

Prompted by Robb: is legitimacy conserved? That is, if an entity gains legitimacy does it necessarily imply that another entity has lost legitimacy? A corollary: do all eras have the same aggregate amount of legitimacy?