To fold or to double-down
As the prospects of a US humanitarian intervention in Georgia increase, watch for Georgian President Saakashvili to try to up the ante. Having lost the war with Russia, his only options are to fold or go for a double-or-nothing bet by attempting to get American intervention.
Although direct military intervention is not being considered, Pentagon sources have hinted that a limited number of troops could be deployed on the ground to support what Mr Bush described as a “vigorous and ongoing” humanitarian mission headed by the US military.Stratfor argues that it is in Georgia’s interest to make it seem that as much of the country is in American control as possible, in order to deter Russia through the threat of escalation.He announced that the first US airforce transport aircraft was already on its way and that more would follow. Meanwhile, the Navy was heading to the Black Sea — currently controlled by Russian warships — to deliver humanitarian and medical supplies direct to Georgian ports.
“We expect Russia to honour its commitment to let in all forms of humanitarian assistance,” said Mr Bush. “We expect Russia to ensure that all lines of communication and transport, including sea ports, airports, roads and air space, remain open for the delivery of humanitarian assistance and for civilian transit.”
President Saakashvili of Georgia seized on the announcement to claim that Tbilisi airport and Poti port would be placed under US military control, a claim the Pentagon swiftly denied.
