Comments on: A 21st Century Golden Age http://opposedsystemsdesign.blogsome.com/2008/03/08/a-21st-century-golden-age/ Strategy, Systems Thinking and Military Affairs. Mon, 09 Nov 2009 04:51:00 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=1.5.1-alpha by: Moon http://opposedsystemsdesign.blogsome.com/2008/03/08/a-21st-century-golden-age/#comment-410 Tue, 11 Mar 2008 10:38:42 +0000 http://opposedsystemsdesign.blogsome.com/2008/03/08/a-21st-century-golden-age/#comment-410 Was just at the library yesterday and skimming Ghamari-Tabrizi's The Worlds of Herman Kahn, when I saw the source photograph you mentioned. Life Magazine, 11 MAY 1959. Looks like they were gaming some sort of strategic bombing scenario. Still couldn't make out the geography. Was just at the library yesterday and skimming Ghamari-Tabrizi’s The Worlds of Herman Kahn, when I saw the source photograph you mentioned. Life Magazine, 11 MAY 1959. Looks like they were gaming some sort of strategic bombing scenario. Still couldn’t make out the geography.

]]> by: Fabius Maximus http://opposedsystemsdesign.blogsome.com/2008/03/08/a-21st-century-golden-age/#comment-409 Mon, 10 Mar 2008 07:51:15 +0000 http://opposedsystemsdesign.blogsome.com/2008/03/08/a-21st-century-golden-age/#comment-409 Addendum: much of what we need is basic grunt-level research. Legions of grad students collecting information on the past century or so of 4GWs (however defined), on a systematic framework that allows comparisons. With that we will have a strong basis for analysis. Addendum: much of what we need is basic grunt-level research. Legions of grad students collecting information on the past century or so of 4GWs (however defined), on a systematic framework that allows comparisons. With that we will have a strong basis for analysis.

]]> by: Fabius Maximus http://opposedsystemsdesign.blogsome.com/2008/03/08/a-21st-century-golden-age/#comment-408 Mon, 10 Mar 2008 07:48:10 +0000 http://opposedsystemsdesign.blogsome.com/2008/03/08/a-21st-century-golden-age/#comment-408 Part of our problem is that the necessary research involves working against our current DoD apparatus, and there is neither internal DOD nor outside institutional support for this today. Unlike RAND, where the USAF was certain to get some value for its money. . Hence the lack of research is a feature, not a bug. Part of our problem is that the necessary research involves working against our current DoD apparatus, and there is neither internal DOD nor outside institutional support for this today. Unlike RAND, where the USAF was certain to get some value for its money.
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Hence the lack of research is a feature, not a bug.

]]> by: Moon http://opposedsystemsdesign.blogsome.com/2008/03/08/a-21st-century-golden-age/#comment-407 Sat, 08 Mar 2008 20:44:22 +0000 http://opposedsystemsdesign.blogsome.com/2008/03/08/a-21st-century-golden-age/#comment-407 I was hoping that was you in the picture and you'd tell us about some kick-arse project you've got in-flight. ;-\ My proto-Goedel swarm notion implies the question: what else might a force of his depth have stumbled into without having a top-down Hilbertian program as a frame of reference? The timeline gets pushed back only w.r.t. your orientation based upon history's single thread. But how relevant is that orientation to a counterfactual thread that does not exist but could have? Backward-chaining COIN was nothing but a half-backed rumination on the inversion of control. Instead of starting from assumptions and premises under our present orientation and mapping the forward-chained path to our desired conclusion (and calling it a COIN strategy), start with the conclusions and cast about for intermediate steps that back-calculate you back to your present premises. The experimentation in that approach is not so much looking for full back-paths, but tossing in new and throwing out old rules here and there that, in combination/omission, might satisfy the back-calculation. Bring in the synthesizers and counterhistorians and have them color and narrate the orientation(s) that you need to encapsulate the premises your bottom-up research sifted out. All this comes from my tinkering with rule-based systems; I'm not an expert. There's probably another name for this concept that's not so technologically bound. I was hoping that was you in the picture and you’d tell us about some kick-arse project you’ve got in-flight. ;-\

My proto-Goedel swarm notion implies the question: what else might a force of his depth have stumbled into without having a top-down Hilbertian program as a frame of reference? The timeline gets pushed back only w.r.t. your orientation based upon history’s single thread. But how relevant is that orientation to a counterfactual thread that does not exist but could have?

Backward-chaining COIN was nothing but a half-backed rumination on the inversion of control. Instead of starting from assumptions and premises under our present orientation and mapping the forward-chained path to our desired conclusion (and calling it a COIN strategy), start with the conclusions and cast about for intermediate steps that back-calculate you back to your present premises. The experimentation in that approach is not so much looking for full back-paths, but tossing in new and throwing out old rules here and there that, in combination/omission, might satisfy the back-calculation. Bring in the synthesizers and counterhistorians and have them color and narrate the orientation(s) that you need to encapsulate the premises your bottom-up research sifted out.

All this comes from my tinkering with rule-based systems; I’m not an expert. There’s probably another name for this concept that’s not so technologically bound.

]]> by: Wiggins http://opposedsystemsdesign.blogsome.com/2008/03/08/a-21st-century-golden-age/#comment-406 Sat, 08 Mar 2008 19:20:35 +0000 http://opposedsystemsdesign.blogsome.com/2008/03/08/a-21st-century-golden-age/#comment-406 The picture's from a RAND wargame back in the 1950s (from the days when wargames looked more like expensive games of Risk ;-). As far as the bottom-up Godels (and thanks for catching the reference), my only concern is their having to spend their time figuring out WHAT to study, instead of actually making progress. If Godel had needed to spend time assessing the field before devoting his efforts to exploring the line of inquiry that eventually led him to incompleteness, then the entire time line gets pushed back (and maybe doesn't happen). Interesting thoughts on backwards-chaining COIN - could you elaborate some more? cheers, W The picture’s from a RAND wargame back in the 1950s (from the days when wargames looked more like expensive games of Risk ;-).

As far as the bottom-up Godels (and thanks for catching the reference), my only concern is their having to spend their time figuring out WHAT to study, instead of actually making progress. If Godel had needed to spend time assessing the field before devoting his efforts to exploring the line of inquiry that eventually led him to incompleteness, then the entire time line gets pushed back (and maybe doesn’t happen).

Interesting thoughts on backwards-chaining COIN - could you elaborate some more?

cheers,
W

]]> by: Moon http://opposedsystemsdesign.blogsome.com/2008/03/08/a-21st-century-golden-age/#comment-405 Sat, 08 Mar 2008 14:28:52 +0000 http://opposedsystemsdesign.blogsome.com/2008/03/08/a-21st-century-golden-age/#comment-405 Would you elaborate on the image at the top of your blog page? As a wargamer, I want to know what I'm seeing. ;-\ Would you elaborate on the image at the top of your blog page? As a wargamer, I want to know what I’m seeing. ;-\

]]> by: Moon http://opposedsystemsdesign.blogsome.com/2008/03/08/a-21st-century-golden-age/#comment-404 Sat, 08 Mar 2008 14:00:10 +0000 http://opposedsystemsdesign.blogsome.com/2008/03/08/a-21st-century-golden-age/#comment-404 Perhaps you'd entertain an inversion of the research vector? Rather than Hilbert->Goedel top-down, how about distribuited proto-Goedels bottom-up? With a syntheto-Hilbert to narrate after the fact what was / is being done? On this inversion theme, I think there's a lot of promise / unbroken ground in the area of self-organization and self-awareness, with the 21st Century's USAF yet to emerge from this confluence you seek. As far as the 21 Century's RAND, well, aren't we in it? On another tangent, try to reverse-engineer Islamic fundamentalism. Backward-chain COIN. Perhaps you’d entertain an inversion of the research vector? Rather than Hilbert->Goedel top-down, how about distribuited proto-Goedels bottom-up? With a syntheto-Hilbert to narrate after the fact what was / is being done?

On this inversion theme, I think there’s a lot of promise / unbroken ground in the area of self-organization and self-awareness, with the 21st Century’s USAF yet to emerge from this confluence you seek. As far as the 21 Century’s RAND, well, aren’t we in it?

On another tangent, try to reverse-engineer Islamic fundamentalism. Backward-chain COIN.

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