Lanchester and Irrelevence
Lanchester’s models of attrition, though originally published in the early 20th Century [1], still represent the deepest foundation of much of American military modeling.
The assumptions of Lanchester’s original model include the following:
- in combat, the primary form of self-defense is to kill the enemy before he kills you (p47)
- combat is essentially collective (p47)
- each side enjoys equal benefits from cover, morale and training (p49)
- battles are fought to conclusion until one side is annihilated (implicitly assumed throughout)
A consequence of this model is that:
In short, Lanchester model applies to the very narrow range of situations where two forces mechanically pound each other until one collapses. There is no defense; only a faster rate of fire, more forces or more accurate weapons. The entire modern system, as Biddle calls it, developed in order to avoid this situation. Thus, if one were to find one’s self in a situation where Lanchester’s model applies, then one already knows that he is facing an enemy not using the modern system.a small force attacking or attacked by one of overwhelming magnitude is wiped out of existence without being able to extract a tool even comparable to its own numerical value; it is necessary to say in the open since, under other circumstances, the larger force is unable to bring its weapons to bear, and this is an essential portion of the basic hypothesis. (p63)
Also note that if these assumptions ever do hold, victory requires a mathematically illiterate opponent.
Therefore, the accuracy of a Lanchester-based analysis depends in large part upon an ill-trained and incompetent enemy. This seems to be the least interesting scenario to explore, not to mention the least important.
[1] F. W. Lanchester. Aircraft in Warfare. Sunnydale, CA: Lanchester Press. 1995 (originally published: 1916).
