Iran Fright Month

One way to view the latest flurry of articles discussing American plans to attack Iran (one such example) is that it represents an honest push by hawkish elements to use military force.

Another interpretation, not necessarily at odds with the first, is that the administration hopes to use this rhetoric to convince Iran that an attack is a very real possibility. The goal of these threats would be shift Iran’s policies in Iraq. This interpretation does not necessarily contradict the first because some genuine efforts to plan air attacks against Iran could be being leveraged as a bargaining tool by other elements in the executive branch.

Given the mistrust between Iran and the US, the belligerent prelude to an attack and the posturing prelude to a negotiated agreement will be functionally indistinguishable.